Apakah Perang Dagang Trump Penting? Pertumbuhan Global Diprediksi Meningkat

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Jakarta, . Indonesia – Organisasi untuk Kerjasama Ekonomi dan Pembangunan (OECD) menaikkan perkiraan pertumbuhan global 2025 menjadi 3,3%, Rabu (4/12/2024). Namun badan tersebut memperingatkan risiko tindakan proteksionis yang memicu inflasi dan memperlambat perekonomian.

Revisi ini terjadi hanya beberapa minggu sebelum Donald Trump kembali menjabat Presiden Amerika Serikat (AS), Januari 2025. Trump berjanji akan mengenakan tarif terhadap mitra dagang Washington yang diyakini akan memperlambat perdagangan global.

“Peningkatan tindakan pembatasan perdagangan dapat meningkatkan biaya dan harga, serta menghambat investasi, melemahkan inovasi, dan pada akhirnya menurunkan pertumbuhan,” kata OECD, dikutip AFP.

Peningkatan sebesar 0,1 poin persentase pada perkiraan pertumbuhan global tahun 2025, menjadi 3,3%, terutama disebabkan oleh pertumbuhan AS yang lebih kuat. Negara-negara lain seperti Perancis dan Jerman juga akan mengalami penurunan perkiraan pertumbuhan mereka sebesar 0,3 poin persentase pada tahun 2025, menjadi 0,9% dan 0,7%, karena kedua negara tersebut menghadapi krisis politik di tengah meningkatnya tekanan fiskal.

Sebelumnya, ekonom di lembaga keuangan ING merilis penelitian yang memperkirakan dampak kebijakan Trump secara global. Jika tarif diterapkan secara universal antara 10%-20% untuk semua barang yang diimpor dari luar negeri dan tarif 60% untuk semua barang dari Tiongkok, misalnya, maka konsumen AS akan terbebani hingga US$2.400 setiap tahunnya.

“Potensi peningkatan biaya konsumen dan inflasi dapat mempunyai implikasi ekonomi yang luas, terutama dalam perekonomian di mana belanja konsumen menyumbang 70% dari seluruh aktivitas,” kata ekonom ING James Knightley.

Kepala divisi Tiongkok di Dana Moneter Internasional (IMF), Eswar Prasad, mengatakan tarif Trump akan berdampak negatif pada perdagangan AS dan internasional. Di mana negara-negara di seluruh dunia berlomba-lomba untuk mengurangi dampak tarif AS terhadap perekonomian mereka dan berusaha mencari cara untuk menghindarinya.

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vae vae vae vae vae vae vae vae vae vae vae vae vae vae vae vae vae vae vae vae vae vae vae vae vae vae vae vae vae vae vae vae vae vae vae vae vae vae vae vae vae vae vae vae vae vae vae vae vae vae vae vae vae vae vae vae vae vae vae vae vae vae vae vae vae vae vae vae vae vae vae vae vae vae vae vae vae vae vae vae vae vae vae vae vae vae vae vae vae vae vae vae vae vae vae vae vae vae vae vae vae vae vae vae vae vae vae vae vae vae vae vae vae vae vae vae vae vae vae vae vae vae vae vae vae vae vae vae vae vae vae vae vae vae vae vae vae vae vae vae vae vae vae vae vae vae vae vae vae vae vae vae vae vae vae vae vae vae vae vae vae vae vae vae vae vae vae vae vae vae vae vae vae vae vae vae vae vae vae vae vae vae vae vae vae vae vae vae vae vae vae vae vae vae vae vae vae vae vae vae vae vae vae vae vae vae vae vae vae vae vae vae vae vae vae vae vae vae vae vae vae vae vae vae vae vae vae vae vae vae vae vae vae vae vae vae vae vae vae vae vae vae vae vae vae vae vae vae vae vae vae vae vae vae vae vae vae vae vae vae vae vae vae vae vae vae vae vae vae vae vae vae vae vae vae vae vae vae vae vae vae vae vae vae vae vae vae vae vae vae vae vae vae vae vae vae vae vae vae vae vae vae vae vae vae vae vae vae vae vae vae vae vae vae vae vae vae vae vae vae vae vae vae vae vae vae vae vae vae vae vae vae vae vae vae vae vae vae vae vae vae vae vae vae vae vae vae vae vae vae vae vae vae vae vae vae vae vae vae vae vae vae vae vae vae vae vae vae vae vae vae vae vae vae vae vae vae vae vae vae vae vae vae vae vae vae vae vae vae vae vae vae vae vae vae vae vae vae vae vae vae vae vae vae vae vae vae vae vae vae vae vae vae vae vae vae vae vae vae vae vae vae vae vae vae